nba playoff predictions

life isn't life without taking some risks. so here are my (somewhat edgy) nba playoff predictions.

Eastern Conference

First Round

(1) Chicago Bulls vs. (8) Indiana Pacers -- Bulls in 5

(4) Orlando Magic vs. (5) Atlanta Hawks -- Magic in 6

(3) Boston Celtics vs. (6) New York Knicks -- Celtics in 6

(2) Miami Heat) vs. (7) Philadelphia 76ers -- Heat in 5

Second Round
Bulls over Magic, 6 games
Heat over Celtics, 5 games

Eastern Conference Finals

Heat over Bulls, 6 games

Western Conference

First Round

(1) San Antonio Spurs vs. (8) Memphis Grizzlies -- Spurs in 6

(4) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (5) Denver Nuggets -- Thunder in 5

(3) Dallas Mavericks vs. (6) Portland Trail Blazers -- Mavs in 7

(2) Los Angeles Lakers vs. (7) New Orleans Hornets -- Lakers in 5

Second Round

Thunder over Spurs, 7 games
Lakers over Mavs, 6 games

Western Conference Finals

Thunder over Lakers, 7 games

NBA Finals

Heat over Thunder, 7 games

NBA Playoff Predictions

My blogging has been relegated to being once a year -- NBA Playoff Predictions. This year, I'm again going head-to-head with Celtics fan/blogger and USC Law Student Hayden. We'll both make our picks, then compare in June: 1 point for picking the winning team in the first round, 2 points for picking the winning team in the second round, 3 for the third, and 4 in the finals, then a bonus point for picking the number of games the series goes (only if you pick the winning team of the series). Check Hayden's picks, and we'll see who's the winner in June.

Western Conference

First Round

#1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #8 Oklahoma City Thunder
Both teams have limped into the playoffs, though fortunately, the Lakers had a big enough lead at the beginning to wrap up the #1 seed early. The Thunder threatened as high as #6, but losing 4 of 5 down the stretch forced them into the 8th seed and a match with the Lakers. Durant's first playoff experience will be entertaining, but I see this as a good chance for the Lakers to get energized and prepared for later rounds. Kobe doesn't back down in the playoffs. Durant will win game 3, but that's all.
Lakers in 5

#4 Denver Nuggets vs. #5 Utah Jazz
I feel like all the experts are picking Utah, but I'm going the other way. Boozer's missed time, Kirilenko has missed time, and a lack of homecourt advantage by way of losing to Phoenix on the season's last night will all work against the Jazz. On the other hand, Kenyon Martin seems to have gotten over having his car filled with buttered popcorn on April Fool's, and played in the team's final few games, albeit not fantastically. Billups and Carmelo will lead this team to an early lead, and Utah won't be able to recover.
Nuggets in 6

#3 Phoenix Suns vs. #6 Portland Trail Blazers
No Brandon Roy, no Greg Oden, and Portland isn't too much of a threat. Andre Miller, Martell Webster, and Marcus Camby just aren't that intimidating as a trio. Nash has had a re-energized season, Amare looks like he actually likes being in Phoenix, and guys like Jason Richardson, Channing Frye, and Robin Lopez are all fitting their roles nicely. If Barbosa can regain his form from a few years ago, this team could be scary in the playoffs.
Suns in 4

#2 Dallas Mavericks vs. #7 San Antonio Spurs
This is probably going to be the most interesting series of the first round. Seed numbers don't really matter, in my book. San Antonio is finally healthy, and overcame a tough first half of the season to finish 20-11 after the All Star Break. Dallas wasn't so bad itself, after acquiring Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood, finishing 23-7 (though, as John Hollinger notes, they did have the second easiest schedule over that stretch). This may be the Spurs' final run with this core, with Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, etc. all over/approaching the top of the hill, and I don't think they'll fall easily. I'm going to pick the upset here.
Spurs in 7.

Second Round

#1 Lakers vs. #4Nuggets
In a rematch of last year's Western Conference finals, the Nuggets will certainly have something to play for. The Nuggets scared Laker nation and almost knocked off the eventual champs. Despite the Lakers struggles of late, I like the first round to energize them, and I see a repeat appearance in the WCF.
Lakers in 6

#3 Suns vs. #7 Spurs
These teams have a fun history (even have their own Wikipedia page about the "rivalry"), so I'd enjoy the battle. Both teams would have a legitimate shot, but seeing the Suns win would be more fun for me.
Suns in 7

Western Conference Finals

#1 Lakers vs. #3 Suns
A throwback to the 2006 & 2007 battles between these teams, I'd really enjoy seeing this series, but what kind of Laker fan would I be if I picked Phoenix?
Lakers in 6

Eastern Conference

#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #8 Chicago Bulls
LeBron.
Cavs in 4

#4 Boston Celtics vs. #5 Miami Heat
The Big Three won't let the Celtics lose this series and relish a match-up with LeBron in Round 2. The Celtics won the season series 3-0, and, though D-Wade will battle, I don't see this series being nearly as dramatic as last year's Celtics-Bulls.
Celtics in 6

#3 Atlanta Hawks vs. #6 Milwaukee Bucks
Tough break for the Bucks losing Andrew Bogut, after a heck of a run since acquiring John Salmons. Also too bad for them that the Hawks are coming into the playoffs healthy and happy, and shot some of the Bucks confidence with a win last weekend in a matchup between the two squads.
Hawks in 5

#2 Orlando Magic vs. #7 Charlotte Bobcats
Congratulations to the Bobcats on a heck of a season, but like the Thunder, the team's got no playoff experience, and gets the privilege of playing last year's conference champion in round 1. That typically doesn't bode well for a squad like Charlotte. I don't expect too shocking of a result here.
Magic in 5

Second Round

#1 Cavs vs. #4 Celtics
After walking through round 1, the Cavs will be healthy and rested, while the Celtics will have likely had a little more trouble moving on to see the LeBrons. Celtics fans know the eventual champion has to go through LeBron, but, I just don't see it happening.
Cavs in 6

#2 Magic vs. #3 Hawks
Atlanta's good, but Orlando's just got so many weapons, that I don't think the Hawks can stand it. For every weapon the Hawks have, Orlando is either just as good or better. Dwight Howard should beat up on Al Horford down low, Vince should go toe-to-toe with Joe Johnson, Jameer against Bibby, Lewis over Smith, etc.
Magic in 5

Eastern Conference Finals

#1 Cavs vs. #2 Magic
The rematch of last year's ECF, I don't know if LeBron will stand losing this time. That said, Orlando's in Cleveland's head, knows it can win, and will make this a fantastic series.
Cavs in 7

NBA Finals

#1 Cavs vs. #1 Lakers
Too many story lines here: Shaq vs. Kobe, Kobe vs. LeBron, Pau vs. Shaq, Will LeBron leave Cleveland if he wins? if he loses? Can Phil pass Red for his 11th ring? Will Phil stick around if he wins? if he loses? This is the matchup everyone wanted last season, when the LeBron-Kobe puppet commercials came out, and you've got to think the networks were all pretty disappointed when it didn't happen. The Cavs got the best of the Lakers during the regular season, but Kobe's experience and energy will win here.
Lakers in 7 (Yes, on Cleveland's home court)

I'm 1-1 in the last two years when picking the Lakers to win the championship, so we'll call this the "rubber match." In any event, this ought to be a great playoffs.

NBA Playoff Predictions

I did this last year, and this year, I challenged a law school friend of mine and impressive Celtics Blogger, Hayden, to make his playoff predictions on his blog. We both decided to get 'em done before the Playoffs started, and we'll bicker back and forth about it as a way to distract ourselves from finals for the next few weeks. So, check his, check mine, and we'll see who did better in June.

I'll go series by series, from the first round through the Finals, picking the winner and series length.

Eastern Conference

First Round

1. Cavs vs. 8. Pistons
Call me crazy, but I think the Pistons will get a game from the LeBrons...err, the Cavs. The Pistons made a "make-or-break deal" at the beginning of the season for Iverson, and now the Nuggets with Billups are sitting at #2 in the West, while Iverson is...just sitting. That said, the Pistons will give the heavy favorites a good first-round test, but, I don't see the series going beyond Cleveland in Game 5.
Cavs in 5

2. Celtics vs. 7. Bulls
Hayden may not particularly like my analysis here, but sorry, the Celtics are a MUCH different team without Kevin Garnett. And frankly, the young, feisty Bulls may be able to run and battle for a few games. However, I'll still give the Champs the benefit of the doubt here.
Celtics in 6

3. Magic vs. 6. Sixers
In my opinion, this is the least exciting first-round series in the East. Orlando's got some injuries with Hedo and Rashard Lewis, but I think they're back. And with Howard down low having a field day against the soft Samuel Dalambert, I don't see the Sixers doing too much in this one. The only thing giving the Magic some trouble may be Andre Miller, if Rafer Alston has a series where we simply can't get anything from him.
Magic in 4

4. Hawks vs. 5. Heat
Ever since last year's Celtics-Hawks first-round series, I've enjoyed watching this Atlanta team. I wish Childress would have stuck around, because the young talent there is impressive. Miami has D-Wade, who will fight and fight, but if you ask LeBron last year, you need more than just one man to get anywhere in the playoffs. Still, Wade alone takes the series a few games further than it ought to go.
Hawks in 7

Second Round

1. Cavs vs. 4. Hawks
As I said before, I like the Hawks squad. But, this is LeBron's time, and he's got the teammates to back him up. Mo Williams can match Bibby, while the Varejao/Ilgauskas/Wallace trio down low should thwart the softer and smaller Al Horford/Josh Smith combo here. And then there's The King.
Cavs in 5

2. Celtics vs. 3. Magic
Now, here's where things get interesting. The Laker fan in me wants to call this for Orlando. I mean, is Kendrick Perkins really going to be the guy who halts Dwight Howard? The question here will be how Hedo, Rashard, and Rafer match up against Pierce, Allen, and Rondo. Healthy, the Magic could give that trio some trouble. Now you can really call me crazy: I'm thinking that with the length of time it takes the NBA to get through a playoff series, KG returns in the middle of this series, if it happens.
Celtics in 7

Eastern Conference Finals

1. Cavs vs. 2. Celtics
What we've all been waiting for all season long in the East--only, unless my insane prediction comes true, the Celtics are missing KG, and the series just got much less interesting. Two things: 1) Cleveland will have homecourt in this one, where they were 39-2 (and should have been 40-1...), 2) Cleveland killed this Boston team less than a week ago in Cleveland, 107-76, sending a nice statement to the Champs. This is where the road ends...
Cavs in 6

Western Conference

First Round

1. Lakers vs. Jazz
Jerry Sloan even thinks his team's chances are "bleak." As a cautious fan, I don't want to count my chickens before their hatched. Utah's always a tough place to play, and I see the Jazz grabbing a game there.
Lakers in 5

2. Nuggets vs. 7. Hornets
Was anyone else surprised to see the Nuggets squeak all the way up to #2? I guess I hadn't looked at the standings for a few weeks after the Lakers clinched and I was somewhat shocked that they were still up this high. That said, I feel like the West is so compact that nothing really matters between 2-7. The Hornets were last year's #2 seed, and led by CP3, they're a force. But, injuries gave them some trouble this year--Chandler and Stojakovic have never been consistently in the lineup, so they've been unable to get in a rhythm. Denver, on the other hand, has skated through, and even without Marcus Camby, Nene has stepped up down low to provide them a force there. Plus, if anyone can hang with CP3, its Billups.
Nuggets in 6

3. Spurs vs. 6. Mavericks
Like the Celtics without KG, the Spurs are a MUCH different team without Manu Ginobili. But, that guy named Tim Duncan and his 4 NBA Championships knows how to lead, and guys like Tony Parker and Roger Mason have really stepped up when Manu was out earlier in the year. On the other side, Dallas had a pretty mediocre and inconsistent year. As much as I'd like to see San Antonio upset in the first round, Dirk can't do it by himself, and Jason Kidd just hasn't been the leader that Dallas hoped for when they acquired him last year. Plus, it's an odd numbered year, and the Spurs tend to do well in those. But, it'll be a fun series, especially if sixth-man Jason Terry heats up.
Spurs in 7

4. Blazers vs. 5. Rockets
This is definitely my favorite first-round series. The Blazers soared at the end of the season and got into the #4 spot, while the Rockets had the chance to get as high as 2, but just couldn't seal the deal. Without T-Mac, I'm kind of excited that Tracy can't make another asinine comment about "if the Rockets lose, blame me." I like the Houston lineup, even without T-Mac, but the young Blazers will run and gun their way past them in a battle, I think.
Blazers in 7

Second Round

1. Lakers vs. 4. Blazers
The prospect of this series kinda scares me, because it's still early in the playoffs, and the Lakers have had some horrible struggles in the Rose Garden lately. But, Kobe's Kobe, and the experienced Lakers should get over those regular season jitters over a youthful Blazers squad.
Lakers in 5 (on the Staples Center floor, after stealing Game 4 in Portland)

2. Nuggets vs. 3. Spurs
The Western Conference has some great matchups this year that are so tough to call, and this would definitely be one of them. Even without Manu, the Spurs are one of the league's best, and I really just have a tough time seeing the Nuggets beat San Antonio in a seven-game series. Chauncey and Melo had a great run, but if its San Antonio in the second round, I see that being as far as it goes. Just my hunch.
Spurs in 6

Western Conference Finals

1. Lakers vs. 3. Spurs
Funny how I'm calling both the Celtics and Spurs in their respective conference finals, even with their major injuries. Maybe I'm giving their supporting cast too much credit, but San Antonio's grittiness just always seems to come through come playoff time (see Tim Duncan bank shot 3-pointer against Phoenix last year). But, like my Eastern Conference Final prediction above, the buck stops here for the Spurs. Lakers-Spurs playoff series this decade(save 2003) don't tend to go so well for the Texans. Without Ginobili, with the revitalized/healthy/happy Kobe-Pau-Lamar-Bynum quartet in purple and gold, and having Games 1 and 2 at Staples to cut through them early, I like the Lakers chances here.
Lakers in 5

NBA FINALS
Lakers vs. Cavs

Kobe and crew battled all year so that they'd have home-court advantage, and they fell just short to the Cavs. However, if it comes to this, as everyone hopes it will, the Lakers did themselves a favor as being one of the "2" in that 39-2 Cleveland home record. The key: which Lamar Odom comes to play? If he can come off the bench and be the leader of that second unit, I like the Lakers chances. Also, we need Pau not to disappear down low. Fortunately, I feel like the Lakers matchup well against Cleveland, and so long as LeBron is held in check simply to the point that he can't completely take over an entire game or (worse) 2, LA can win its first championship in 7 years.
Lakers in 6 (and Cleveland loses its second championship on its own floor in 3 years)

Let the games begin.

great minds think alike?

last weekend was not exactly my moment of glory.

going into round 2 of the NFL playoffs, i figured i would play it safe with the poop picks. after all, it is less than a year removed from the NCAA tournament in which all four no. 1 seeds made it to the final four!

so, of course, i made my predictions: carolina, tennessee, new york, and san diego. three home teams and one wild california upset, just for fun. how wrong could i go?

apparently, real wrong. 0-4 wrong. even babies picking based on their favorite colors did better than me.

but, it was some solace to read today that i was not alone. the great sports guy, bill simmons himself, was right there with me. he, too, did not get a single prediction correct. and so, even if my poop picks were misguided, at least a supposed sports genius was clueless as well.

so, this week, i'm not even going to bother thinking about it. i'm just going with the sports guy: cardinals over eagles, and steelers over ravens. sorry, pennsylvania: wait another year (or 20) for your intra-state deathmatch.

see, this way, i'm safe: i either get the picks right, or at least i'm as dumb as bill simmons. life could be worse.

uh... i don't think so

sometimes, espn just gives sports journalism a bad name.

in a poll of its divisional bloggers, espn found that kurt warner was the runaway leader for nfl mvp.

runaway leader.

we're talking guaranteed 1-pick, 2-sacks a game kurt warner. we're talking plays-in-the-nfc-west kurt warner. we're talking are-you-shitting-me-it's-the-arizona-cardinals kurt warner.

yes, he does have a 99.1 passer rating. but let's remember that he gets to throw to the three towers every week. and it's not like seattle is putting up a ton of resistance as kurt rambles down the field.

you have to respect what arizona has done this year, regardless of how weak its division is. but kurt warner is not your nfl mvp.

if you don't want to drink the kurt warner haterade, consider the list of players who received zero votes in this poll. notable absences including titans QB kerry collins, giants RB brandon jacobs, atlanta QB matt ryan, colts DE dwight freeney... the list goes on. true, these may not be conventional mvp candidates, but do they really deserve as little as zero votes? i mean, even clinton portis got three votes.

poop on espn's nfl bloggers.

phils win world series

no one actually celebrates.

...

...

...

well, i guess my picks were better than theirs. woohoo?

poop picks: ALCS, NLCS, and world series

here at poop on boozer, we're all about duking it out, especially when it comes to our (supposed) sports knowledge. so as we prepare for the four remaining baseball teams to entertain us over the next few weeks, enjoy our best guesses as to who's going to come out on top this fall.

and remember: there's only one october!

-------------------------------------------------------

K.C.R.

ALCS: Boston fans wanted this matchup. They're pissed. The Red Sox Nation just took care of its biggest nemesis this season after knocking off the league best Angels, 3-1. Next on their list? Tropicana Field. Not the Rays - just the field. The Sox went 1-8 at the Trop this year, which played a big factor in their losing the season series 10-8, to the Rays. Sox fans would like nothing more than to shut up the Tampa Bay faithful and prove once and for all that the Rays don't really belong. After watching what they did to the Angels, I don't think they'll have a problem, personally. Red Sox in 5.

NLCS: Good to see the Dodgers make a splash after basically 20 years of futility. Manny-mania exists in Dodgerville, and thank goodness, cause they needed something. The Philly lineup is potent with Howard, Utley, and Rollins, but the prospect of another major sports meeting between LA and Boston is just too much for the networks to pass up (did I say that?). Dodgers in 6.

WORLD SERIES: As much as I hate to admit it, the Sox are too powerful and too strong. Manny will be booed heavily in his return to Fenway, and he'll resume his place in left field in front of the Green Monster. I'd be very surprised if his trip back to Boston doesn't include a stop to pee in the bathroom inside the Green Monster. That said, the series will go back and forth, before the Red Sox ultimately take control and repeat as World Champions. Red Sox in 6.

-------------------------------------------------------

D.R.W.

ALCS: If the 2008 season had gone on for any longer, say another month, you would have eventually seen the Boston Red Sox in first place. They were closing the gap in the AL East, and theoretically may have been able to do it inside of 162 games without injuries to the heart of their lineup (Jason Bay can indeed replace Manny Ramirez, but not with Mark Kotsay hitting behind him). Of course, as a counter to that, even when the Sox were hot and the Rays were not, Tampa won those crucial head-to-head matchups down the stretch, and the middle of the Sox lineup is STILL hurting, not to mention Beckett's oblique. It's a lot to sift through, but I think it comes down to this: if Beckett's healthy, the Beckett-Lester combo will win the Sox the series. If not, Tampa's knack for timely hitting will take it. Red Sox in 7.

NLCS: The Dodgers are reminding me a lot of the 2007 Rockies lately. Their late hot streak allowed them to enter the playoffs with all the momentum in the world, which masked the fact that they had been quite a mediocre team all season. Of course, the cliche is true: the playoffs are in many ways a crapshoot, and baseball is a sport where the hot team can always beat the better team (you may want to ask John Lackey about that - just don't stand within grabbing distance when you ask him). So why shouldn't the Dodgers beat the Phillies? The red-hot 2007 Rockies beat all NL comers, and they didn't even have midseason acquisition Manny Ramirez (who, by the way, may knock Cole Hamels down a couple of pegs). Dodgers in 5.

WORLD SERIES: I could devote an entire post to how awesome this series would be (and I will, if it happens), but for now, I'll try to contain myself to how I think it will go. If the Dodgers really were the Rockies, it would be a sweep to end all sweeps and everyone would go into the long winter months hating the Red Sox that much more. But they're not. The Rockies, in my opinion, were blown out of the water by the Sox last fall because the NL's best just couldn't measure up to the AL's best. The Dodgers, however, actually have the AL's best, and he used to wear a Red Sox uniform. And that leads me to ask: how many World Series wins is Manny Ramirez worth? It may very well be one or two, which is remarkable for a single player. But it's not four. And it would have to be, because I believe the Red Sox would sweep the Dodgers without him. With him? Red Sox in 5.

-------------------------------------------------------

K.L.

ALCS: there were only three teams that were really fun to watch this year in the AL (and might i say in baseball?), and two of them are in this matchup (nice knowing you, los angeles, anaheim, california, or whatever you plan to be next). with the rally monkey (thankfully) out of the picture, the AL east's best will fight to the finish in a pennant battle that has to have a-rod choking on his own vomit. injuries have been the name of the game for boston in the fall, and the health of beckett and drew will have a significant impact on the series. that said, theo did his best to fill those gaps, and with options like casey, kotsay, and crisp to plug holes here and there, the red sox should be set on offense. so it comes down to the pitching matchups. matsuzaka wins game 1, beckett goes 4-5 innings and gets a no-decision (to go with a paul byrd loss) in game 2, lester takes game 3, wakefield loses game 4, but matsuzaka comes back with a win in game 5, and lester (on short rest) and papelbon get the job done before the series can be stretched to seven. as much as i hate to agree with both d.r.w. and k.c.r, the arms don't lie. Red Sox in 6.

NLCS: was manny ramirez really hurt in boston? can players really put up his kind of numbers without performance enhancement? these are all the interesting questions that will be completely irrelevant when the phillies and the dodgers take the field. these two teams had impressive runs in the division series, although the phillies did have a blip loss to the brewers in game 3 that forced them into some extra action. what city of brotherly love fans can feel good about, however, is that pat burrell has his swing back. between him, howard, and utley, the middle of the philadelphia lineup is just scary. that's not even counting players like jimmy rollins and shane victorino. i don't care how good manny is - the phillies are on fire at the right time, to the point where they pretty much have the wild card fervor about them. (and we all know that wild cards have been far from shabby in the past decade.) hamels and blanton are ballers, moyer looks young again, and lidge - though a little shaky - is still perfect. as good as lowe, kuroda, and billingsley can be, they lost 31 games between them for a reason. myers drops game 2 at home, but the phillies surprise most of the sports world (and k.c.r. and d.r.w.) by finally getting back to the world series. Phillies in 5.

WORLD SERIES: red sox-phillies? meh. interesting, but i've seen better. you would think this would be a close series, but if we've learned anything from the past four years, when a team with the word "sox" in its name makes the playoffs, a sweep is in the making. who am i to bet against a 100% win percentage for the red and white sox in the final round since 2004? Red Sox in 4.

March Madness Still Sucks: Reexamining Baseball Picks

One of the benefits of having a blog is that you get to do anything you want. If I want to write a post comparing Joe Biden, quite possibly the future President of the United States, to Pacman Jones, then I get to do just that. You can't stop me.

I bring this up because, as you may recall, both K.L. and I wrote columns last month picking all of the MLB division and wild card winners. We don't quite know all the results yet, but Monday Night Football hasn't started yet and I'm bored, so I've decided to dig up my old picks and give myself a grade for the results that we do know. It is, of course, inherently unfair for me to grade my own picks, but if you don't like it, you can register poopondrw'sselfservinggradingsystem.blogspot.com and complain all about it.

AL EAST

My pick: Tampa Bay Rays

Winner: Rays

Key quote: "It's up for debate--are the Rays just a little luckier and overdue for a regression, or are they simply better than the Red Sox at scoring just as much as they need to win? The former seems more likely, but I'm betting they'd be able to survive such a regression even if it did occur."

Analysis: Not a bad note to start out on--I called a tightening race with the Rays still prevailing, and that's exactly what we got. Of course, I claimed that it would be luck that caught up with the Rays, and it could certainly be argued that it was injuries instead. But hey, the Sox had their fair share of injuries too (and, by the way, will miss Beckett for Game 1), so I still say a regression to the mean was what made things so close. I'm giving myself 5 out of 5 points on this one.

AL CENTRAL

My pick: Chicago White Sox

Winner: TBD

Key quote: "Still, I see the Southsiders slugging their way to the division title, as even the return of Liriano doesn't change the fact that the Twins are due for a few losses."

Analysis: Sure, we don't know the actual outcome yet--but the White Sox are missing Carlos Quentin, and catapulted into a tie with the twins on the strength of a grand slam, so I'm claiming credit anyway. But in the interest of fairness, I'll hold off on awarding points for just now--because something should be done in the interest of fairness in this post.

AL WEST

My pick: The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Surrounding Orange County Environs

Winner: Angels

Key quote: "Get ready for yet another Red Sox-Angels ALDS."

Analysis: Sure, that quote was technically from the wild card section of my old post rather than the NL West section, but this pick was so utterly predictable that frankly I have no idea why you're bothering to read this anyway. Easiest five points I ever won.

AL WILD CARD

My pick: Boston Red Sox

Winner: Red Sox

Key quote: "Since I consider the Twins to be one of the least convincing playoff contenders in either league, the tie will eventually go to the Red Sox."

Analysis: I'd love to give myself the full five points for picking the Sox, but the Twins did not end up posing anywhere near as much of a threat as my pick implied. Four out of five.

NL EAST

My pick: New York Mets

Winner: Philadelphia Phillies

Key quote: "Sometimes, however, things are blissfully simple: the Mets have Johan Santana down the stretch, and the Phillies don't. It's hard to envision a 2007-style collapse with Santana able to serve as a potential stopper if need be."

Analysis: In a battle between the Mets' penchant for late-season choking and the Brewers' penchant for late-season choking, never bet on the Mets. That's the lesson I learned from this season. But, while I was completely overestimated the Mets' ability to avoid a collapse, I actually was sort of right about Santana, who came up huge in his last game of the season and did absolutely everything he could. So I'm giving myself one out of five points just for that, and I will just have to live with the fact that I missed an easy "You Don't Mess With The Johan" joke in the original post. 

NL CENTRAL

My pick: Chicago Cubs

Winner: Cubs

Key quote: "To me, these are two very evenly-matched teams, which means the way things are now (Cubs 4.5 games up) is just about the way they're going to stay."

Analysis: 7.5 games does not equal 4.5 games, which means I lose a point for being overly specific with my predictions. 4 out of 5.

NL WEST

My pick: The Manuel "Manny" Aristedes Ramirez Onelcida Travelling Circus, a.k.a. the Los Angeles Dodgers

Winner: Dodgers

Key quote: "The Dodgers are currently two games behind the Diamondbacks, but Manny Ramirez is playing well enough to carry a team into the postseason singlehandedly."

Analysis: Any way you look at it, that's a five-point answer right there. And it was even an upset when I predicted it. If only there were a way to give myself 6 out of 5 points. Oh wait--there totally is. Six it is. Anarchy prevails.

NL WILD CARD

My pick: Milwaukee Brewers

Winner: Brewers

Key quote: "The Cardinals should drop out of it first, but eventually the Phillies will fold and the Brew Crew will stand alone."

Analysis: You know, if I had limited myself to just "Brewers," things would have turned out great. But I had to go and predict the demise of the Phillies, and now they're the AL East winners and Philly fans are pretending they love Jimmy Rollins again and I look like an idiot. Three out of five points.

So we have a total of 28 out of 35 points, with 5 yet to be awarded. Not bad, especially considering I only cheated a little bit. Now that the grading is over with, we can all just sit back, relax, and think about how awesome a Red Sox-Dodgers or Rays-Cubs World Series would be...

Maybe It's Me?

I arrived in Boston as a college student in September of 2004.

Yes, the Patriots had just won the Super Bowl in January earlier that year, but what other sports success had the city had in the recent years before? Celtics? No chance. Red Sox, remember that Curse? Bruins? Please.

I'll go ahead and take credit for that Patriots' championship prior to my arrival, because I knew I was headed to Boston back in December 2003.

Then, what happens?

The Red Sox beat the odds (and the Curse) and win the World Series in 2004, and cap it off with another Series victory in 2007 to bookend my college life in Boston with 2 Championships.

The Patriots won again in 2005, allowing Boston to continue their celebration in the wake of the Sox Curse-Breaking win.

Then, in my final week in Boston, the Celtics brought home a long overdue championship.

Sure, the Patriots lost in the 2008 Super Bowl, but who can argue with the 17-0 record prior to that as not being successful? Perhaps that Super Bowl loss was just a sign of things to come for the city.

Now? I'm gone. I've left Boston, and it's sports are a question mark.

Brady's out. With one whack to the knee, the MVP is out for the year, and the Patriots chances of remedying their Super Bowl disappointment last season just went down the tubes.

The Red Sox, leading in the AL East when I left Boston, are now trailing Tampa Bay for the division lead and are risking not making the playoffs at all.

The Celtics are celebrating way too much, and are poised to struggle in their effort to defend their championship (OK, so this is just wishful thinking, but it definitely falls in line with my theory).

The Bruins? Who?

And now, the good news? I've relocated to LA. Having attached "Los Angeles" to their name, the Angels may reap the benefits of me being in the City of Angels, and the Lakers are destined to have Andrew Bynum and Co. make a repeat (and hopefully successful) trip to the NBA Finals.

I'm liking my theory.

Re: Damn You, March Madness (Baseball Picks)

great minds think alike, right? well, one thing's for sure - d.r.w. posted baseball divisional picks the same day i was planning on doing it. however, at least one of us will prove to be less than great, as i may have to poop on some of his predictions.

as my great friend kel used to say, "AWWW, HERE GOES!"

AL WEST: i hate the rally monkey with all my guts (see series, world, 2002). but not only do the angels have a 15-game lead - they are actually a really good team. they have their bad moments, as was manifested in their 9-0 loss to the twins last night, but this team has the kind of pitching that can carry a squad to a championship even if the sluggers all stumble. angels.

AL CENTRAL: this is probably the toughest pick of the bunch. while my preseason pick detroit has been more than disappointing, the twins and chisox have turned this into a race to watch. minnesota has excellent pitching - all kinds of magnificent WHIPs and WPCTs, 4th in the AL in quality starts, and a great closer in joe nathan (although they really miss setup man pat neshek). and while they don't slug like the white sox (.458), this team can score runs, too (3rd in AL in batting average, 5th in runs scored). moreover, jim thome and joe crede's health is quite questionable, which means that the white sox may struggle down the stretch. ultimately, though, it may come down to the schedule: from monday through sept. 17th, the twins play seattle, oakland, toronto, detroit, KC, baltimore, and cleveland, with the blue jays being the only team with a winning record. meanwhile, the white sox get boston, the angels, and the bronx bombers over the same stretch. yikes. late-september series against the royals and the indians may come too late. twins (poop on d.r.w.).

AL EAST: when it comes to september, one thing becomes very important: can you beat playoff-bound teams? the rays answered this question with a resounding yes in taking 2 of 3 from the angels this past week - a squad that has recently made the red sox and the yankees look like triple-A teams. and speaking of the minors, ESPN.com's buster olney points to lefthander david price as a september call-up that could make a big difference for the rays, a la k-rod in that dreaded year of 2002. meanwhile, buchholz is back in the minors, beckett's arm is numb, and 8-11 paul byrd is now sitting right in the middle of the boston rotation. umm... rays.

AL WILD CARD: other than beckett, matsuzaka, papelbon, and (usually) okajima, the red sox pitching is a shambles. especially if this injury to beckett proves to have lingering effects, boston is going to have to slug its way into the postseason. on the other hand, the chisox are 3rd in the AL in WHIP and 4th in ERA to go along with 3rd in OPS. the DL will be an issue for both teams to monitor down the stretch (j.d. drew isn't looking so good), but here's guessing that the red sox will be reminiscing about the days of manny when they have to play tampa bay and new york in 3 of their last 6 series. can we really have a postseason without both the yankees and the red sox? white sox (poop on d.r.w., and on any bloody sox references).

NL WEST: while it is tempting to dream of cy young candidate tim lincecum leading the giants to a 35-game win streak and the division title, the reality is that cy young rival brandon webb is much more likely to make it to october. after a torrid start to the season, arizona stumbled, but the diamondbacks have righted the ship with the dodgers "breathing" down their necks. the dodger bullpen, especially when saito is healthy, is one of the best in the league, but as greg maddux's lousy outing last night showed, long gone are the days of dodgers pitchers piling up quality starts (8th in the NL). compare: a potential four-man rotation of webb, dan haren, randy johnson, and doug davis? while things seem crystal clear for the diamondbacks, things couldn't be more confusing for joe torre, who somehow has to juggle pierre, kemp, ethier, garciaparra, kent, ramirez, loney, and blake. did anyone ever tell ned colletti that there can be too much of an average thing? diamondbacks (poop on d.r.w.).

NL CENTRAL: a run differential of +170, starting pitchers named dempster, harden, and zambrano, and kerry wood closing the door? sounds too good to be true, right? well, you have to remember that this is chicago we're talking about, billy goat, steve bartman, and all. they finish the season with milwaukee and st. louis at home followed by seven road games at the mets and the brewers. meanwhile, milwaukee gets cincinnati and the pirates during that stretch. and oh, they also get san diego and the reds at home in early september. there are definitely two teams coming out of this division, but this may finally be the year of the sausage. brewers (poop on d.r.w.).

NL EAST: people may whine about the NL worst, but it's really this division that makes me yawn. gone are the days of john smoltz and greg maddux staring down well-rounded mets teams. now it's just one expensive team (new york) against another (philadelphia), with a cheap team (florida) in there for kicks. when it comes down to it, the phillies are just too streaky and inconsistent to take this division (see last week's four-game sweep against the dodgers), and they're playing clubs in contention for most of september (except for a six-game homestand against the braves and the nationals to end the season). meanwhile, the mets have won 11 of their last 12 (albeit against crappy teams) and can rely on pitchers like pedro martinez, oliver perez, john maine, and stud johan santana. you worry a little bit without billy wagner there at the end, but the mets have an offense (3rd in NL in runs scored) that can take some heat off the bullpen. it may not be a galloping finish, but new york should have still have a representative in this postseason. mets.

NL WILD CARD: i'm probably crazy for giving the division to the brewers, so there's no way that the league leaders in runs scored, OBP, SLG, and BAA don't make the playoffs. the cubs look as good as ever, and they are as likely as any team to add to the list of recent wild card teams to make the world series. cubs (poop on d.r.w. - sort of).

Damn You, March Madness (Baseball Picks)

It's the dog days of August, and there's a certain smell in the air. It's not pollen, or the faint scent of Beijing smog wafting its way across the Pacific. No, my friends, it is the smell of uncertainty. It has been, according to many, an unusually exciting baseball season, and while some playoff spots are relatively secure (we'll be seeing you in October, K-Rod), there are quite a number of exciting races out there, with outcomes still very much up in the air.

So, who will make it, and who will not? Many are asking the questions, but we here at Poop on Boozer are the only ones with the answers:

AL EAST: Sorry, Yankees. Baseball Prospectus has your playoff odds hovering at around 2%, which means it's a sprint to the finish between the Red Sox and Rays. The smart money is on the Rays, who are almost definitely making the playoffs and most likely as the AL East champ. One factor worth noting, however, is the fact that the Red Sox have a much better run differential than the Rays, and have far outperformed the Rays in terms of total offense produced and total offense allowed. The advantage only grows when you factor in the pitching and lineups the two teams have faced thus far. It's up for debate--are the Rays just a little luckier and overdue for a regression, or are they simply better than the Red Sox at scoring just as much as they need to win? The former seems more likely, but I'm betting they'd be able to survive such a regression even if it did occur. Pick: Rays

AL CENTRAL: The Twins, like the Rays, are overperformers; they have more wins than you would expect them to have based on the numbers they've put up. They may be good, or just lucky, but one fact is indisputable: they now have Francisco Liriano, who should be much more helpful than Junior Griffey will be for the White Sox. Still, I see the Southsiders slugging their way to the division title, as even the return of Liriano doesn't change the fact that the Twins are due for a few losses. Pick: White Sox

AL WEST: Umm, Angels. Pick: Angels

AL WILD CARD: Since I consider the Twins to be one of the least convincing playoff contenders in either league, the tie will eventually go to the Red Sox. Which means: get ready for yet another Red Sox-Angels ALDS. Pick: Red Sox

NL EAST: The Marlins, who were a great story, seem to be fading, but the Phillies remain relatively close to the first-place Mets. Sometimes, however, things are blissfully simple: the Mets have Johan Santana down the stretch, and the Phillies don't. It's hard to envision a 2007-style collapse with Santana able to serve as a potential stopper if need be. Pick: Mets

NL CENTRAL: Chicago vs. Milwaukee. Deep-dish pizza vs. beer. C.C. Sabathia vs. Rich Harden. To me, these are two very evenly-matched teams, which means the way things are now (Cubs 4.5 games up) is just about the way they're going to stay. But don't despair, Brewers fans--there's good news coming for you in two paragraphs. Pick: Cubs

NL WEST: Ahh, the NL West. If the Rays are the Robert Downey Jr. of teams, (see my earlier comment on K.L.'s post) the NL West is the Godfather III of divisions--much crappier than its counterparts, and we'd all kind of prefer to pretend it didn't exist. But hey, SOMEONE has to win this thing. The Dodgers are currently two games behind the Diamondbacks, but Manny Ramirez is playing well enough to carry a team into the postseason singlehandedly. Pick: Dodgers

NL WILD CARD: The Cardinals and Phillies are hanging with the Brewers, but Milwaukee just has too good a team. The Cardinals should drop out of it first, but eventually the Phillies will fold and the Brew Crew will stand alone. Pick: Brewers

So there you have it: eight playoff spots out there and I picked exactly two (minor) upsets. But hey, this is the year I was tempted to put all No. 1 seeds in my bracket's Final Four, only to change my mind at the last minute. And I am NOT making that mistake again.