Re: Damn You, March Madness (Baseball Picks)

great minds think alike, right? well, one thing's for sure - d.r.w. posted baseball divisional picks the same day i was planning on doing it. however, at least one of us will prove to be less than great, as i may have to poop on some of his predictions.

as my great friend kel used to say, "AWWW, HERE GOES!"

AL WEST: i hate the rally monkey with all my guts (see series, world, 2002). but not only do the angels have a 15-game lead - they are actually a really good team. they have their bad moments, as was manifested in their 9-0 loss to the twins last night, but this team has the kind of pitching that can carry a squad to a championship even if the sluggers all stumble. angels.

AL CENTRAL: this is probably the toughest pick of the bunch. while my preseason pick detroit has been more than disappointing, the twins and chisox have turned this into a race to watch. minnesota has excellent pitching - all kinds of magnificent WHIPs and WPCTs, 4th in the AL in quality starts, and a great closer in joe nathan (although they really miss setup man pat neshek). and while they don't slug like the white sox (.458), this team can score runs, too (3rd in AL in batting average, 5th in runs scored). moreover, jim thome and joe crede's health is quite questionable, which means that the white sox may struggle down the stretch. ultimately, though, it may come down to the schedule: from monday through sept. 17th, the twins play seattle, oakland, toronto, detroit, KC, baltimore, and cleveland, with the blue jays being the only team with a winning record. meanwhile, the white sox get boston, the angels, and the bronx bombers over the same stretch. yikes. late-september series against the royals and the indians may come too late. twins (poop on d.r.w.).

AL EAST: when it comes to september, one thing becomes very important: can you beat playoff-bound teams? the rays answered this question with a resounding yes in taking 2 of 3 from the angels this past week - a squad that has recently made the red sox and the yankees look like triple-A teams. and speaking of the minors, ESPN.com's buster olney points to lefthander david price as a september call-up that could make a big difference for the rays, a la k-rod in that dreaded year of 2002. meanwhile, buchholz is back in the minors, beckett's arm is numb, and 8-11 paul byrd is now sitting right in the middle of the boston rotation. umm... rays.

AL WILD CARD: other than beckett, matsuzaka, papelbon, and (usually) okajima, the red sox pitching is a shambles. especially if this injury to beckett proves to have lingering effects, boston is going to have to slug its way into the postseason. on the other hand, the chisox are 3rd in the AL in WHIP and 4th in ERA to go along with 3rd in OPS. the DL will be an issue for both teams to monitor down the stretch (j.d. drew isn't looking so good), but here's guessing that the red sox will be reminiscing about the days of manny when they have to play tampa bay and new york in 3 of their last 6 series. can we really have a postseason without both the yankees and the red sox? white sox (poop on d.r.w., and on any bloody sox references).

NL WEST: while it is tempting to dream of cy young candidate tim lincecum leading the giants to a 35-game win streak and the division title, the reality is that cy young rival brandon webb is much more likely to make it to october. after a torrid start to the season, arizona stumbled, but the diamondbacks have righted the ship with the dodgers "breathing" down their necks. the dodger bullpen, especially when saito is healthy, is one of the best in the league, but as greg maddux's lousy outing last night showed, long gone are the days of dodgers pitchers piling up quality starts (8th in the NL). compare: a potential four-man rotation of webb, dan haren, randy johnson, and doug davis? while things seem crystal clear for the diamondbacks, things couldn't be more confusing for joe torre, who somehow has to juggle pierre, kemp, ethier, garciaparra, kent, ramirez, loney, and blake. did anyone ever tell ned colletti that there can be too much of an average thing? diamondbacks (poop on d.r.w.).

NL CENTRAL: a run differential of +170, starting pitchers named dempster, harden, and zambrano, and kerry wood closing the door? sounds too good to be true, right? well, you have to remember that this is chicago we're talking about, billy goat, steve bartman, and all. they finish the season with milwaukee and st. louis at home followed by seven road games at the mets and the brewers. meanwhile, milwaukee gets cincinnati and the pirates during that stretch. and oh, they also get san diego and the reds at home in early september. there are definitely two teams coming out of this division, but this may finally be the year of the sausage. brewers (poop on d.r.w.).

NL EAST: people may whine about the NL worst, but it's really this division that makes me yawn. gone are the days of john smoltz and greg maddux staring down well-rounded mets teams. now it's just one expensive team (new york) against another (philadelphia), with a cheap team (florida) in there for kicks. when it comes down to it, the phillies are just too streaky and inconsistent to take this division (see last week's four-game sweep against the dodgers), and they're playing clubs in contention for most of september (except for a six-game homestand against the braves and the nationals to end the season). meanwhile, the mets have won 11 of their last 12 (albeit against crappy teams) and can rely on pitchers like pedro martinez, oliver perez, john maine, and stud johan santana. you worry a little bit without billy wagner there at the end, but the mets have an offense (3rd in NL in runs scored) that can take some heat off the bullpen. it may not be a galloping finish, but new york should have still have a representative in this postseason. mets.

NL WILD CARD: i'm probably crazy for giving the division to the brewers, so there's no way that the league leaders in runs scored, OBP, SLG, and BAA don't make the playoffs. the cubs look as good as ever, and they are as likely as any team to add to the list of recent wild card teams to make the world series. cubs (poop on d.r.w. - sort of).