Damn You, March Madness (Baseball Picks)

It's the dog days of August, and there's a certain smell in the air. It's not pollen, or the faint scent of Beijing smog wafting its way across the Pacific. No, my friends, it is the smell of uncertainty. It has been, according to many, an unusually exciting baseball season, and while some playoff spots are relatively secure (we'll be seeing you in October, K-Rod), there are quite a number of exciting races out there, with outcomes still very much up in the air.

So, who will make it, and who will not? Many are asking the questions, but we here at Poop on Boozer are the only ones with the answers:

AL EAST: Sorry, Yankees. Baseball Prospectus has your playoff odds hovering at around 2%, which means it's a sprint to the finish between the Red Sox and Rays. The smart money is on the Rays, who are almost definitely making the playoffs and most likely as the AL East champ. One factor worth noting, however, is the fact that the Red Sox have a much better run differential than the Rays, and have far outperformed the Rays in terms of total offense produced and total offense allowed. The advantage only grows when you factor in the pitching and lineups the two teams have faced thus far. It's up for debate--are the Rays just a little luckier and overdue for a regression, or are they simply better than the Red Sox at scoring just as much as they need to win? The former seems more likely, but I'm betting they'd be able to survive such a regression even if it did occur. Pick: Rays

AL CENTRAL: The Twins, like the Rays, are overperformers; they have more wins than you would expect them to have based on the numbers they've put up. They may be good, or just lucky, but one fact is indisputable: they now have Francisco Liriano, who should be much more helpful than Junior Griffey will be for the White Sox. Still, I see the Southsiders slugging their way to the division title, as even the return of Liriano doesn't change the fact that the Twins are due for a few losses. Pick: White Sox

AL WEST: Umm, Angels. Pick: Angels

AL WILD CARD: Since I consider the Twins to be one of the least convincing playoff contenders in either league, the tie will eventually go to the Red Sox. Which means: get ready for yet another Red Sox-Angels ALDS. Pick: Red Sox

NL EAST: The Marlins, who were a great story, seem to be fading, but the Phillies remain relatively close to the first-place Mets. Sometimes, however, things are blissfully simple: the Mets have Johan Santana down the stretch, and the Phillies don't. It's hard to envision a 2007-style collapse with Santana able to serve as a potential stopper if need be. Pick: Mets

NL CENTRAL: Chicago vs. Milwaukee. Deep-dish pizza vs. beer. C.C. Sabathia vs. Rich Harden. To me, these are two very evenly-matched teams, which means the way things are now (Cubs 4.5 games up) is just about the way they're going to stay. But don't despair, Brewers fans--there's good news coming for you in two paragraphs. Pick: Cubs

NL WEST: Ahh, the NL West. If the Rays are the Robert Downey Jr. of teams, (see my earlier comment on K.L.'s post) the NL West is the Godfather III of divisions--much crappier than its counterparts, and we'd all kind of prefer to pretend it didn't exist. But hey, SOMEONE has to win this thing. The Dodgers are currently two games behind the Diamondbacks, but Manny Ramirez is playing well enough to carry a team into the postseason singlehandedly. Pick: Dodgers

NL WILD CARD: The Cardinals and Phillies are hanging with the Brewers, but Milwaukee just has too good a team. The Cardinals should drop out of it first, but eventually the Phillies will fold and the Brew Crew will stand alone. Pick: Brewers

So there you have it: eight playoff spots out there and I picked exactly two (minor) upsets. But hey, this is the year I was tempted to put all No. 1 seeds in my bracket's Final Four, only to change my mind at the last minute. And I am NOT making that mistake again.