NBA Playoff Predictions

My blogging has been relegated to being once a year -- NBA Playoff Predictions. This year, I'm again going head-to-head with Celtics fan/blogger and USC Law Student Hayden. We'll both make our picks, then compare in June: 1 point for picking the winning team in the first round, 2 points for picking the winning team in the second round, 3 for the third, and 4 in the finals, then a bonus point for picking the number of games the series goes (only if you pick the winning team of the series). Check Hayden's picks, and we'll see who's the winner in June.

Western Conference

First Round

#1 Los Angeles Lakers vs. #8 Oklahoma City Thunder
Both teams have limped into the playoffs, though fortunately, the Lakers had a big enough lead at the beginning to wrap up the #1 seed early. The Thunder threatened as high as #6, but losing 4 of 5 down the stretch forced them into the 8th seed and a match with the Lakers. Durant's first playoff experience will be entertaining, but I see this as a good chance for the Lakers to get energized and prepared for later rounds. Kobe doesn't back down in the playoffs. Durant will win game 3, but that's all.
Lakers in 5

#4 Denver Nuggets vs. #5 Utah Jazz
I feel like all the experts are picking Utah, but I'm going the other way. Boozer's missed time, Kirilenko has missed time, and a lack of homecourt advantage by way of losing to Phoenix on the season's last night will all work against the Jazz. On the other hand, Kenyon Martin seems to have gotten over having his car filled with buttered popcorn on April Fool's, and played in the team's final few games, albeit not fantastically. Billups and Carmelo will lead this team to an early lead, and Utah won't be able to recover.
Nuggets in 6

#3 Phoenix Suns vs. #6 Portland Trail Blazers
No Brandon Roy, no Greg Oden, and Portland isn't too much of a threat. Andre Miller, Martell Webster, and Marcus Camby just aren't that intimidating as a trio. Nash has had a re-energized season, Amare looks like he actually likes being in Phoenix, and guys like Jason Richardson, Channing Frye, and Robin Lopez are all fitting their roles nicely. If Barbosa can regain his form from a few years ago, this team could be scary in the playoffs.
Suns in 4

#2 Dallas Mavericks vs. #7 San Antonio Spurs
This is probably going to be the most interesting series of the first round. Seed numbers don't really matter, in my book. San Antonio is finally healthy, and overcame a tough first half of the season to finish 20-11 after the All Star Break. Dallas wasn't so bad itself, after acquiring Caron Butler and Brendan Haywood, finishing 23-7 (though, as John Hollinger notes, they did have the second easiest schedule over that stretch). This may be the Spurs' final run with this core, with Duncan, Parker, Ginobili, etc. all over/approaching the top of the hill, and I don't think they'll fall easily. I'm going to pick the upset here.
Spurs in 7.

Second Round

#1 Lakers vs. #4Nuggets
In a rematch of last year's Western Conference finals, the Nuggets will certainly have something to play for. The Nuggets scared Laker nation and almost knocked off the eventual champs. Despite the Lakers struggles of late, I like the first round to energize them, and I see a repeat appearance in the WCF.
Lakers in 6

#3 Suns vs. #7 Spurs
These teams have a fun history (even have their own Wikipedia page about the "rivalry"), so I'd enjoy the battle. Both teams would have a legitimate shot, but seeing the Suns win would be more fun for me.
Suns in 7

Western Conference Finals

#1 Lakers vs. #3 Suns
A throwback to the 2006 & 2007 battles between these teams, I'd really enjoy seeing this series, but what kind of Laker fan would I be if I picked Phoenix?
Lakers in 6

Eastern Conference

#1 Cleveland Cavaliers vs. #8 Chicago Bulls
LeBron.
Cavs in 4

#4 Boston Celtics vs. #5 Miami Heat
The Big Three won't let the Celtics lose this series and relish a match-up with LeBron in Round 2. The Celtics won the season series 3-0, and, though D-Wade will battle, I don't see this series being nearly as dramatic as last year's Celtics-Bulls.
Celtics in 6

#3 Atlanta Hawks vs. #6 Milwaukee Bucks
Tough break for the Bucks losing Andrew Bogut, after a heck of a run since acquiring John Salmons. Also too bad for them that the Hawks are coming into the playoffs healthy and happy, and shot some of the Bucks confidence with a win last weekend in a matchup between the two squads.
Hawks in 5

#2 Orlando Magic vs. #7 Charlotte Bobcats
Congratulations to the Bobcats on a heck of a season, but like the Thunder, the team's got no playoff experience, and gets the privilege of playing last year's conference champion in round 1. That typically doesn't bode well for a squad like Charlotte. I don't expect too shocking of a result here.
Magic in 5

Second Round

#1 Cavs vs. #4 Celtics
After walking through round 1, the Cavs will be healthy and rested, while the Celtics will have likely had a little more trouble moving on to see the LeBrons. Celtics fans know the eventual champion has to go through LeBron, but, I just don't see it happening.
Cavs in 6

#2 Magic vs. #3 Hawks
Atlanta's good, but Orlando's just got so many weapons, that I don't think the Hawks can stand it. For every weapon the Hawks have, Orlando is either just as good or better. Dwight Howard should beat up on Al Horford down low, Vince should go toe-to-toe with Joe Johnson, Jameer against Bibby, Lewis over Smith, etc.
Magic in 5

Eastern Conference Finals

#1 Cavs vs. #2 Magic
The rematch of last year's ECF, I don't know if LeBron will stand losing this time. That said, Orlando's in Cleveland's head, knows it can win, and will make this a fantastic series.
Cavs in 7

NBA Finals

#1 Cavs vs. #1 Lakers
Too many story lines here: Shaq vs. Kobe, Kobe vs. LeBron, Pau vs. Shaq, Will LeBron leave Cleveland if he wins? if he loses? Can Phil pass Red for his 11th ring? Will Phil stick around if he wins? if he loses? This is the matchup everyone wanted last season, when the LeBron-Kobe puppet commercials came out, and you've got to think the networks were all pretty disappointed when it didn't happen. The Cavs got the best of the Lakers during the regular season, but Kobe's experience and energy will win here.
Lakers in 7 (Yes, on Cleveland's home court)

I'm 1-1 in the last two years when picking the Lakers to win the championship, so we'll call this the "rubber match." In any event, this ought to be a great playoffs.