Can We Just Talk About This One Thing

It's time. Enough time has passed, enough wounds have healed (sort of), that it's time to address the infamous 4th-and-2 call. We've all seen the play, and by now, most of us have seen this: http://www.advancednflstats.com/2009/11/belichicks-4th-down-decision-vs-colts.html. If you haven't, read it now, along with their subsequent posts about the game.

Now, I think Belichick's call was the right one, for pretty much the same reasons those stats outline. And yes, I did think so before I saw the stats, but I do think we need to view those stats as reliable. A couple of things to consider:

1. Before you say it, because I know you want to, absolutely no one thinks you should make decisions based on stats alone. Here's the thing: at the very least, I want my coach to know those numbers. I want him to take into account other factors as well, but I want him knowing how the situation plays out on average. Basically, stats are a terrific anchor from which you can then adjust for context--but you need the anchor. If some too-smart-for-his-own-good NL manager is about to have his hitter lay down a sac bunt, I want someone in the dugout to say, "Hey Tony,* just so you know, this typically causes teams to score fewer runs, so, you'd better have a good reason for doing it." That's all I want. That's how stats should be used. Not relied upon exclusively, not ignored because they're "just numbers" or "don't take the specifics of the situation into account."

2. No, they DON'T take the situation into account (well, they kind of do--down, distance, time remaining, timeouts, etc.). But, sure--Tom Brady and Peyton Manning aren't factored into these numbers. But, going by point 1, you need a CONVINCING reason to say that the context of this game outweighs what happens, more often than not, in all other games. The argument I hear most often is, "you just don't give Peyton Manning the ball at the 28 with plenty of time and a chance to win." But, think about that for a second. How much better are Peyton and the Colts' offense than the average team, for just one drive? Better, yes, but 9%-greater-chance-to-win greater? Also, bearing in mind that if Peyton is so great from the 28, he'd be just that great after receiving a punt, the only argument that works would look this:

"Peyton's offense is better than the average team's, but to varying degrees. The degree to which Peyton/the Colts are better than the average team is greater on short drives of 28 yards than it is on long drives, such as those after receiving punts, to such a significant degree as to cause a 9% swing in the Patriots' likelihood of winning the game."

If that's your argument, fine. I disagree, but at least we're both looking at what typically happens and then adjusting for context. At the VERY least, you can't say that going the other way is a ridiculously dumb call, since at the absolute worst, both sides are defensible.

3. On top of all that, I say that the context adjusts things TOWARDS going for it. The Patriots defense was stretched thin by injuries, to the point where I honestly believe the Colts were going to score if they got the ball back, no matter where that happened to be. On top of that, if you're going to argue that Peyton is better than the average QB (true) and we need to factor that into the percentages, then you have to admit that Tom Brady also is more likely than most quarterbacks to get the two yards for the first down (which, by the way, I think he probably did on that throw). Essentially, it boils down to this: you can pit the Patriots offense against the Colts defense (huge advantage Patriots), or the Colts defense against the Patriots offense (huge advantage Colts). The best defense against Peyton Manning, and I believe the only defense against him at that point in the game, is to keep him on the sidelines.

4. There can be shades of gray to this--Belichick isn't 100% genius or 100% moron. Just because going for it was the right call doesn't mean the pass to Faulk was the right call, or attempting to throw on third down was the right call, or mismanaging timeouts was the right call. The only thing I'm trying to show here is that castigating him for going for it really is unfounded, and you can't just criticize people for flying in the face of football convention without a convincing argument why convention works better.

Phew. Good. Demons exorcised. Jets on Sunday.

*Or whoever.