I bring this up because, as you may recall, both K.L. and I wrote columns last month picking all of the MLB division and wild card winners. We don't quite know all the results yet, but Monday Night Football hasn't started yet and I'm bored, so I've decided to dig up my old picks and give myself a grade for the results that we do know. It is, of course, inherently unfair for me to grade my own picks, but if you don't like it, you can register poopondrw'sselfservinggradingsystem.blogspot.com and complain all about it.
AL EAST
My pick: Tampa Bay Rays
Winner: Rays
Key quote: "It's up for debate--are the Rays just a little luckier and overdue for a regression, or are they simply better than the Red Sox at scoring just as much as they need to win? The former seems more likely, but I'm betting they'd be able to survive such a regression even if it did occur."
Analysis: Not a bad note to start out on--I called a tightening race with the Rays still prevailing, and that's exactly what we got. Of course, I claimed that it would be luck that caught up with the Rays, and it could certainly be argued that it was injuries instead. But hey, the Sox had their fair share of injuries too (and, by the way, will miss Beckett for Game 1), so I still say a regression to the mean was what made things so close. I'm giving myself 5 out of 5 points on this one.
AL CENTRAL
My pick: Chicago White Sox
Winner: TBD
Key quote: "Still, I see the Southsiders slugging their way to the division title, as even the return of Liriano doesn't change the fact that the Twins are due for a few losses."
Analysis: Sure, we don't know the actual outcome yet--but the White Sox are missing Carlos Quentin, and catapulted into a tie with the twins on the strength of a grand slam, so I'm claiming credit anyway. But in the interest of fairness, I'll hold off on awarding points for just now--because something should be done in the interest of fairness in this post.
AL WEST
My pick: The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Surrounding Orange County Environs
Winner: Angels
Key quote: "Get ready for yet another Red Sox-Angels ALDS."
Analysis: Sure, that quote was technically from the wild card section of my old post rather than the NL West section, but this pick was so utterly predictable that frankly I have no idea why you're bothering to read this anyway. Easiest five points I ever won.
AL WILD CARD
My pick: Boston Red Sox
Winner: Red Sox
Key quote: "Since I consider the Twins to be one of the least convincing playoff contenders in either league, the tie will eventually go to the Red Sox."
Analysis: I'd love to give myself the full five points for picking the Sox, but the Twins did not end up posing anywhere near as much of a threat as my pick implied. Four out of five.
NL EAST
My pick: New York Mets
Winner: Philadelphia Phillies
Key quote: "Sometimes, however, things are blissfully simple: the Mets have Johan Santana down the stretch, and the Phillies don't. It's hard to envision a 2007-style collapse with Santana able to serve as a potential stopper if need be."
Analysis: In a battle between the Mets' penchant for late-season choking and the Brewers' penchant for late-season choking, never bet on the Mets. That's the lesson I learned from this season. But, while I was completely overestimated the Mets' ability to avoid a collapse, I actually was sort of right about Santana, who came up huge in his last game of the season and did absolutely everything he could. So I'm giving myself one out of five points just for that, and I will just have to live with the fact that I missed an easy "You Don't Mess With The Johan" joke in the original post.
NL CENTRAL
My pick: Chicago Cubs
Winner: Cubs
Key quote: "To me, these are two very evenly-matched teams, which means the way things are now (Cubs 4.5 games up) is just about the way they're going to stay."
Analysis: 7.5 games does not equal 4.5 games, which means I lose a point for being overly specific with my predictions. 4 out of 5.
NL WEST
My pick: The Manuel "Manny" Aristedes Ramirez Onelcida Travelling Circus, a.k.a. the Los Angeles Dodgers
Winner: Dodgers
Key quote: "The Dodgers are currently two games behind the Diamondbacks, but Manny Ramirez is playing well enough to carry a team into the postseason singlehandedly."
Analysis: Any way you look at it, that's a five-point answer right there. And it was even an upset when I predicted it. If only there were a way to give myself 6 out of 5 points. Oh wait--there totally is. Six it is. Anarchy prevails.
NL WILD CARD
My pick: Milwaukee Brewers
Winner: Brewers
Key quote: "The Cardinals should drop out of it first, but eventually the Phillies will fold and the Brew Crew will stand alone."
Analysis: You know, if I had limited myself to just "Brewers," things would have turned out great. But I had to go and predict the demise of the Phillies, and now they're the AL East winners and Philly fans are pretending they love Jimmy Rollins again and I look like an idiot. Three out of five points.
So we have a total of 28 out of 35 points, with 5 yet to be awarded. Not bad, especially considering I only cheated a little bit. Now that the grading is over with, we can all just sit back, relax, and think about how awesome a Red Sox-Dodgers or Rays-Cubs World Series would be...
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2 comments:
your predictive power severely exceeded mine, so in the battle that counts, you win.
i am surprised, however, by you conceding the possibility of a rays-cubs postseason. losing faith in the sox already?
Just because Rays-Cubs is a POSSIBILITY doesn't mean the Sox won't win it. Although, this year, if I had to choose between winning the World Series and having the presidential election go my way, I'd choose the election. In 2004, I hate to admit it, but that probably wasn't the case.
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