NBA Playoff Predictions

I did this last year, and this year, I challenged a law school friend of mine and impressive Celtics Blogger, Hayden, to make his playoff predictions on his blog. We both decided to get 'em done before the Playoffs started, and we'll bicker back and forth about it as a way to distract ourselves from finals for the next few weeks. So, check his, check mine, and we'll see who did better in June.

I'll go series by series, from the first round through the Finals, picking the winner and series length.

Eastern Conference

First Round

1. Cavs vs. 8. Pistons
Call me crazy, but I think the Pistons will get a game from the LeBrons...err, the Cavs. The Pistons made a "make-or-break deal" at the beginning of the season for Iverson, and now the Nuggets with Billups are sitting at #2 in the West, while Iverson is...just sitting. That said, the Pistons will give the heavy favorites a good first-round test, but, I don't see the series going beyond Cleveland in Game 5.
Cavs in 5

2. Celtics vs. 7. Bulls
Hayden may not particularly like my analysis here, but sorry, the Celtics are a MUCH different team without Kevin Garnett. And frankly, the young, feisty Bulls may be able to run and battle for a few games. However, I'll still give the Champs the benefit of the doubt here.
Celtics in 6

3. Magic vs. 6. Sixers
In my opinion, this is the least exciting first-round series in the East. Orlando's got some injuries with Hedo and Rashard Lewis, but I think they're back. And with Howard down low having a field day against the soft Samuel Dalambert, I don't see the Sixers doing too much in this one. The only thing giving the Magic some trouble may be Andre Miller, if Rafer Alston has a series where we simply can't get anything from him.
Magic in 4

4. Hawks vs. 5. Heat
Ever since last year's Celtics-Hawks first-round series, I've enjoyed watching this Atlanta team. I wish Childress would have stuck around, because the young talent there is impressive. Miami has D-Wade, who will fight and fight, but if you ask LeBron last year, you need more than just one man to get anywhere in the playoffs. Still, Wade alone takes the series a few games further than it ought to go.
Hawks in 7

Second Round

1. Cavs vs. 4. Hawks
As I said before, I like the Hawks squad. But, this is LeBron's time, and he's got the teammates to back him up. Mo Williams can match Bibby, while the Varejao/Ilgauskas/Wallace trio down low should thwart the softer and smaller Al Horford/Josh Smith combo here. And then there's The King.
Cavs in 5

2. Celtics vs. 3. Magic
Now, here's where things get interesting. The Laker fan in me wants to call this for Orlando. I mean, is Kendrick Perkins really going to be the guy who halts Dwight Howard? The question here will be how Hedo, Rashard, and Rafer match up against Pierce, Allen, and Rondo. Healthy, the Magic could give that trio some trouble. Now you can really call me crazy: I'm thinking that with the length of time it takes the NBA to get through a playoff series, KG returns in the middle of this series, if it happens.
Celtics in 7

Eastern Conference Finals

1. Cavs vs. 2. Celtics
What we've all been waiting for all season long in the East--only, unless my insane prediction comes true, the Celtics are missing KG, and the series just got much less interesting. Two things: 1) Cleveland will have homecourt in this one, where they were 39-2 (and should have been 40-1...), 2) Cleveland killed this Boston team less than a week ago in Cleveland, 107-76, sending a nice statement to the Champs. This is where the road ends...
Cavs in 6

Western Conference

First Round

1. Lakers vs. Jazz
Jerry Sloan even thinks his team's chances are "bleak." As a cautious fan, I don't want to count my chickens before their hatched. Utah's always a tough place to play, and I see the Jazz grabbing a game there.
Lakers in 5

2. Nuggets vs. 7. Hornets
Was anyone else surprised to see the Nuggets squeak all the way up to #2? I guess I hadn't looked at the standings for a few weeks after the Lakers clinched and I was somewhat shocked that they were still up this high. That said, I feel like the West is so compact that nothing really matters between 2-7. The Hornets were last year's #2 seed, and led by CP3, they're a force. But, injuries gave them some trouble this year--Chandler and Stojakovic have never been consistently in the lineup, so they've been unable to get in a rhythm. Denver, on the other hand, has skated through, and even without Marcus Camby, Nene has stepped up down low to provide them a force there. Plus, if anyone can hang with CP3, its Billups.
Nuggets in 6

3. Spurs vs. 6. Mavericks
Like the Celtics without KG, the Spurs are a MUCH different team without Manu Ginobili. But, that guy named Tim Duncan and his 4 NBA Championships knows how to lead, and guys like Tony Parker and Roger Mason have really stepped up when Manu was out earlier in the year. On the other side, Dallas had a pretty mediocre and inconsistent year. As much as I'd like to see San Antonio upset in the first round, Dirk can't do it by himself, and Jason Kidd just hasn't been the leader that Dallas hoped for when they acquired him last year. Plus, it's an odd numbered year, and the Spurs tend to do well in those. But, it'll be a fun series, especially if sixth-man Jason Terry heats up.
Spurs in 7

4. Blazers vs. 5. Rockets
This is definitely my favorite first-round series. The Blazers soared at the end of the season and got into the #4 spot, while the Rockets had the chance to get as high as 2, but just couldn't seal the deal. Without T-Mac, I'm kind of excited that Tracy can't make another asinine comment about "if the Rockets lose, blame me." I like the Houston lineup, even without T-Mac, but the young Blazers will run and gun their way past them in a battle, I think.
Blazers in 7

Second Round

1. Lakers vs. 4. Blazers
The prospect of this series kinda scares me, because it's still early in the playoffs, and the Lakers have had some horrible struggles in the Rose Garden lately. But, Kobe's Kobe, and the experienced Lakers should get over those regular season jitters over a youthful Blazers squad.
Lakers in 5 (on the Staples Center floor, after stealing Game 4 in Portland)

2. Nuggets vs. 3. Spurs
The Western Conference has some great matchups this year that are so tough to call, and this would definitely be one of them. Even without Manu, the Spurs are one of the league's best, and I really just have a tough time seeing the Nuggets beat San Antonio in a seven-game series. Chauncey and Melo had a great run, but if its San Antonio in the second round, I see that being as far as it goes. Just my hunch.
Spurs in 6

Western Conference Finals

1. Lakers vs. 3. Spurs
Funny how I'm calling both the Celtics and Spurs in their respective conference finals, even with their major injuries. Maybe I'm giving their supporting cast too much credit, but San Antonio's grittiness just always seems to come through come playoff time (see Tim Duncan bank shot 3-pointer against Phoenix last year). But, like my Eastern Conference Final prediction above, the buck stops here for the Spurs. Lakers-Spurs playoff series this decade(save 2003) don't tend to go so well for the Texans. Without Ginobili, with the revitalized/healthy/happy Kobe-Pau-Lamar-Bynum quartet in purple and gold, and having Games 1 and 2 at Staples to cut through them early, I like the Lakers chances here.
Lakers in 5

NBA FINALS
Lakers vs. Cavs

Kobe and crew battled all year so that they'd have home-court advantage, and they fell just short to the Cavs. However, if it comes to this, as everyone hopes it will, the Lakers did themselves a favor as being one of the "2" in that 39-2 Cleveland home record. The key: which Lamar Odom comes to play? If he can come off the bench and be the leader of that second unit, I like the Lakers chances. Also, we need Pau not to disappear down low. Fortunately, I feel like the Lakers matchup well against Cleveland, and so long as LeBron is held in check simply to the point that he can't completely take over an entire game or (worse) 2, LA can win its first championship in 7 years.
Lakers in 6 (and Cleveland loses its second championship on its own floor in 3 years)

Let the games begin.

how not to fight for a playoff spot

the suns came into today's matchup with the mavericks three games behind dallas for the no. 8 seed in the west with six games remaining in the regular season.

at halftime, phoenix has pretty much destroyed its chances at making the playoffs by allowing 81 points in 20 minutes.

how bad is it for the suns? jason kidd has 16 points and 16 assists - the last of which came on a baseline inbounds pass for an 70-foot buzzer-beater by josh howard.

as avery johnson put it on the abc halftime show: "phoenix came into this game with a do-or-die situation. well, they're dead now."

maybe phoenix really does need to think about learning how to play defense.